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The global exchange rate volatility: fewer not orders into hedging measures

Published:2015-02-25 10:25:01 Source: Views:1301

The global exchange rate volatility: fewer not orders into hedging measures

Global economic growth is weak, insufficient domestic demand, the appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar continued for many years, so that China export-oriented foreign trade enterprises these years of life is not a bed of roses. Recently, the General Administration of Customs released 2014 Chinese import and export data shows, foreign trade exports decline leading index for third months. Especially in 2014 December, the index plunged to its lowest level since 2013 December. This indicates that the first quarter of 2015, the export is still facing great pressure.
Lock the exchange rate effect Co.
Mr. Li is the Yangtze River Delta an export enterprise boss, his company is mainly engaged in the export of light industrial products, a year of transactions in the tens of millions of dollars, scattered areas of export, the United States, Japan, Europe, Africa and other areas have his trading partner.
He told the "First Financial Daily" the reporter, in the past several years, the RMB exchange rate continued unilateral appreciation, export-oriented foreign trade enterprises profit more and more thin, the business is more and more difficult to do. In order to avoid exchange rate risk, as is usually the case, he chose to lock in the forward rate forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange, fixed cost.
But in fact, locking the exchange rate for risk aversion limited role. On the one hand, lock exchange rate is in global exchange rate are relatively stable, relatively effective way. "Exchange rate lock is built on you or not, I may, on the basis of all the money. Exchange rate fluctuation, the two sides are not hold, this list is difficult to sign." Mr. Li said to the reporter.
On the other hand, locking the exchange rate is only fixed their costs, but not the cost of customer lock. With the development of global currencies to depreciate, in this way to lock the weight cost is very small. "Lock to lock, $1 less a few cents, and even a few cents, compared with foreign currency against the dollar devaluation of the crazy, almost negligible."
Mr. Lee told reporters that the sale of a dragon, the exchange rate risk is definitely not a unilateral, considering only the devaluation of the renminbi against the dollar has little significance, now foreign currency to the dollar's sharp devaluation risk is the biggest risk facing China's foreign trade enterprises.
In recent two years, about 60% yen to the devaluation of the renminbi. In 2014, the ruble against the dollar has declined nearly 50%, become one of the largest global currency decline. The global market Zaixian a devaluation in the storm. Entered in 2015, immediately after the European Central Bank aggressive monetary easing, Canada, Switzerland, Denmark, India, Singapore and other economies, has to follow the trend of interest rates. In January alone, at least 9 of the central bank to ease monetary policy.
Although since 2014, the renminbi over since the 2005 reform tendency of appreciation, the devaluation of the year began, the spot exchange rate dropped a total of 2.42%. But if with other trading partner countries at 20%, compared to 30% depreciation, but appreciation of the actual.
At present, people from all walks of life reached a consensus that the possibility of RMB devaluation of 2015 is not big, but with the central bank to gradually withdraw from the normalized intervention of RMB exchange rate, large amplitude fluctuations will be normal.
No orders is the biggest hedge
"A lot of export production enterprises during the first half of the year did not start, start to give workers the minimum wage is not open, start saving cost." Mr. Li said.
"Next, we focus on the development of USA guests, at present only on the Sino US trade, exports are good. But in the same way, the key USA market procurement center is not only China, but a wide range of Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Kampuchea and other countries, a good political relations and American, on the other hand, the local labor and raw materials, low cost more." Mr. Li told reporters, export more and more difficult to do, he is also hard to find various ways to hedge the import export, even going to change.
"In the view of the devaluation of RMB is minimal, it simply hedge with the import mode." He intends to import some timber and mineral raw materials from Africa, the problem is that the domestic economic downturn, after the raw materials come in, sales have become a problem.

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